In cases when it is impossible to calculate risk, adoption of risk decisions happens to the help of heuristics.
The heuristics represents set of logical acceptances and methodical rules of a theoretical research and search of the truth.
In other words, it rules and acceptances of the solution of particularly complex tasks.
Of course, the heuristics is less reliable and less certain, than mathematical calculations. However it gives the chance to receive quite certain decision.
The risk management has the system of heuristic rules and acceptances for decision making in the conditions of risk.
Basic rules of a risk management:
1. It is impossible to risk more, than it is able to afford equity.
2. It seems about risk consequences.
3. It is impossible to risk much for the sake of small.
4. The positive decision is made only in the absence of doubt.
5. In the presence of doubts negative decisions are made.
6. It is impossible to think that there is always only one decision. Perhaps, there are also others.
Implementation of the first rule means that before making the decision on risk capital investments, the financial manager has to:
- to determine the greatest possible volume of a loss by this risk;
- to compare it with the volume of the stuck capital;
- to compare it with all own financial resources and to define whether loss of this capital will result in bankruptcy of this investor.
The volume of a loss from capital investments can be equal to the volume of this capital, it is slightly less or more it.
At direct investments the volume of a loss is, as a rule, equal to the volume of a venture capital.
The investor invested 1 million dollars in risk business.
Business burned through.
The investor lost 1 million dollars.
However taking into account decrease in purchasing power of money in the conditions of inflation the volume of losses can be more, than the amount of the invested money.
In this case the volume of a possible loss should be determined taking into account the inflation index.
The investor invested 1 million dollars in risk matter in hope to receive 2 million dollars in a year. Business burned through.
If in a year money did not return, then the volume of a loss should be considered taking into account the inflation index (for example, 5%), i.e. 1.05 million dollars.
At the direct loss caused by the fire, a flood, theft, etc., the size of a loss is more than real loss of property as it includes still additional monetary liquidation costs of consequences of a loss and acquisition of new property.
At the portfolio investments, i.e. at security purchase which can be sold in secondary market loss volume usually is less than amount of the spent capital.
The ratio of the greatest possible volume of a loss and volume of own financial resources of the investor represents the risk degree leading to bankruptcy.
It is measured by means of risk coefficient:
R = L / F,
where R - risk coefficient;
L - the greatest possible amount of a loss, dollars;
F - the volume of own financial resources taking into account precisely known receipt of funds, dollars.
The researches of risk actions conducted by analysts allow to draw a conclusion that the optimum coefficient of risk makes 0.3, and the risk coefficient leading to bankruptcy of the investor - 0.7 and more.
Implementation of the second rule demands that the financial manager, knowing the greatest possible size of a loss, would define what it can lead to what risk probability, and I made the decision on refusal of risk (i.e. from an action), adoption of risk on the responsibility or transfer of risk on responsibility to other person.
Action of the third rule is especially brightly shown by transfer of risk, i.e. at insurance.
In this case it means that the financial manager has to define and choose the ratio accepted for it between an insurance premium and an insurance sum.
The insurance premium is a payment of the insurer to the insurer for an insurance risk.
The insurance sum is a sum of money for which material values, responsibility, life and health of the insurer are insured.
The risk should not be withheld, i.e. the investor should not assume risk if the size of a loss is rather big in comparison with economy on an insurance premium.
Implementation of other rules means that in a situation for which there is only one decision (positive or negative) it is necessary at first to try to find other solutions.
Perhaps, they really exist. If the analysis shows that there are no other decisions, work by the rule "counting on the worst" i.e. if you doubt, make the negative decision.